Obama + 11 in Wisconsin

by tom32182, Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 12:35:09 PM EST

New Poll from PPP:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/P PP_Wisconsin_Release_021208.pdf




Tags: Obama, Clinton, Polling (all tags)

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Re: Obama + 11 in Wisconsin (none / 0)

Can you do a short analysis? I know you are trying to break the news but talk about how Obama wins accross racial line in Wisconsin, ya know,lol


"Apparently they have an 11-month calendar over there that's missing the month of February," Obama strategist David Axelrod
by Jr1886 on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 12:38:04 PM EST

Re: Obama + 11 in Wisconsin (none / 0)

"Our poll shows that if there was standard turnout for the primary, Obama would lead
Clinton 46-42," said Debnam. "But since we believe record numbers of young voters and
African Americans will turn out to support him, the weighted result gives Obama a
greater 50-39 advantage."

And yet women won't turn out in record numbers for Hillary? WHAT. EVER.


by Scan on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 12:41:56 PM EST

Um (none / 0)

Younger women and African-American women... tend to vote for Obama.

So even if they DO turn out in record numbers, many of them are voting against Hillary.


by Cycloptichorn on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 12:42:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Um (none / 0)

You can weight poll results to get whatever kind of results you want. African-Americans make up about 6% of Wisconsin. Women make up 50+%.


by Scan on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 12:46:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Um (none / 0)

ah haaa you missing the point Obama leads Hillary among whites. So she has no chance as of Today.

I expect Obama to run an ad about his opposition to the Iraq fiasco as it is one of the most important issue in Wisconsin


"Apparently they have an 11-month calendar over there that's missing the month of February," Obama strategist David Axelrod
by Jr1886 on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 12:49:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Um (none / 0)

What about YOUNG women, who vote for Obama?

C'mon.  I know that these are dark days for you guys, but imagining that Hillary has a lock on the female vote is just wrong.

After Obama wins tonight, and speaks in WI, the media is going to go nuts about his chances there. And they rightly should.  He'll be ahead in the popular vote totals, in the pledged delgates, and in the overall delegate totals.  


by Cycloptichorn on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 01:01:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Um (none / 0)

Actually, nevermind....lets keep this narrative that Hillary will probably lose Wisconsin. It will make her win there the perfect comeback narrative.

A poll there late last week had her up 9 points, btw.


by Scan on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 12:50:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Um (none / 0)

That poll just happened to be by ARG, the laughing stock of all political polls.  


by oaksmarts on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 01:40:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama + 11 in Wisconsin (none / 0)

This poll has Clinton winning 43% with women and 35% with men and winning 39% in total.

This mean the men: women ratio is 50:50 in the sample.

Sorry, that ain't going to happen in Wisconsin- this a primary and atleast 57-58% will be women.

That will make the margin at about 8% instead of 11%. ( for the record turnout model). For the standard turnout model, this could be about even.

Bottomline- this is going to be a close race like missouri with Obama winning Milwaukee and Clinton the rural areas.


by rinis74 on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 12:51:13 PM EST

Re: Obama + 11 in Wisconsin (none / 0)

He'll win Madison, too, although it's been interesting for me to discover that the students I see on a regular basis are pretty evenly divided between Clinton and Obama, rather than tilting heavily to Obama.  

Madison and Milwaukee, however, are never guaranteed to carry the state, so I'll be surprised if it's not at least much closer than this poll suggests, and perhaps a squeaker.


by aggieric on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 01:11:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama + 11 in Wisconsin (none / 0)

The poll says 53% women. I agree that it's a bit too low, but the difference is not that significant.


by micha1976 on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 01:43:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama + 11 in Wisconsin (none / 0)

According to this Iraq is reemerging as a major issue.   Is Clinton's plan to bypass Wisconsin entirely?


by Piuma on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 01:05:42 PM EST

Re: Obama + 11 in Wisconsin (none / 0)

Look at the crosstabs of the poll.

Obama is winning among women, whites, independents, men, blacks, and every single age group except for the people 65+.

While we have yet to see the actual voting play out, I think we're beginning to see the destruction of the media created myth that Hillary is the preferred candidate of blue collar workers and women. She still has the silver foxes, though.


Two riders were approaching......the wind begins to howl!
by John in Chicago on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 01:07:22 PM EST

Re: Obama + 11 in Wisconsin (none / 0)

HRC is the heavy favorite in Wisconsin. It fits her very well. The women will carry her over.
Obama is fighting an uphill battle in wisconsin. He is a bears fan afterall.

Time to contribute again to Obama to help him battle the Clinton Machine.


by hawkjt on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 01:46:15 PM EST

Re: Obama + 11 in Wisconsin (none / 0)

hil running ads in wi
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2 008/02/12/657845.aspx
by art3 on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 02:21:11 PM EST

Re: Obama + 11 in Wisconsin (none / 0)

can we get through tonight first lol


vote blue in 2008
by sepulvedaj3 on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:24:35 PM EST

And the award for laughability goes to... (none / 0)

1. That's not the most recent poll they took.

  1. Every other poll has Obama leading by 5% or more.
  2. ARG is one of the least accurate pollsters out there.
  3. Wisconsin has election day registration.

But go on, hold on to that poll. Savor it. Just don't call Obama supporters naive, because that would be a very black kettle-calling indeed.


Visit Election Inspection for analysis, polls, and predictions!
by X Stryker on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 06:15:10 PM EST

Re: And the award for laughability goes to... (none / 0)

Oops, just realized I was commenting on an old diary. PPP just released another poll today, and I found this diary via a Google search, and I thought it must have been new. sorry.


Visit Election Inspection for analysis, polls, and predictions!
by X Stryker on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 06:30:20 PM EST
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