by tom32182, Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 11:27:09 PM EST
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo rtPopup.aspx?g=a727cce1-0546-4909-95cf-0 2f3bc9ab73c&q=45558
Tags: Poll, Texas (all tags)
Excellent news. If he comes within 5pct or less or even wins, he should come out of TX with a very nice delegate edge.
The survey does not factor in the caucus, and as we've seen, the Obama campaign is better at managing caucuses
- With her campaign on the line in Texas , you would think they would have become masters in the caucus process.
Ya think ?
This isn't going to be idaho , nebraska etc .
This would be more like Nevada.
This could be a campaign-ender for Hillary. This is must-win.
50-46 = 4 point difference.
At least to me, it clearly reads 50-45
Indeed. My eyes suck.
All of this after Hillary spent a few days touring the Rio Grande Valley and Obama hasn't shown up in the state yet. At the very least, this confirms the CNN poll showing a very close race and not the 14 point race Rasmussen had.
And some estimates have the African-American turnout numbers even larger than this poll suggests.
yes, in SUSA obama usually does better than polled, especially in states with large AA pops. while there has been no explanation for this, i've noticed that obama always does better with AA than the poll says. he'll get about 85-90% in the actual race, wheras the polls say 65-70%. it would explain how he made up the points in missouri, alabama, georgia, and south carolina.
Reverse Wilder effect?
General pattern seemed to be that in the South (ex: Georgia, Alabama, SC), polls underestimate both Obama's margin among African-Americans, and their turnout. In the northeast, however, its the opposite: Clinton did a lot better among African-Americans in MA, for example, than was predicted.
This means bad news for Clinton, though - most people would not classify Texas as a northeastern state...
I think that effect is happening because AA are turning out for this primary in higher numbers than we've ever seen. So the "likely voter" paradigm that surveying organizations use is just not cutting it.
I read somewhere (Baltimore Sun, I think) that in Georgia and SC, AA voter turnout was between 80% and 90%. Keeping in mind it's sometimes as low as 40% you can imagine how things are getting skewed.
That's GOTV on levels I've never seen in my lifetime.
yep... and if independents have anything to say about it then Hillary will lose this state badly. There must be some long faces in the clinton campaign tonight.
BUT: there is "give" in these numbers that must be mentioned in the same breath. Among Hispanic voters, Clinton leads 2:1. SurveyUSA estimates that Hispanics make-up 32% of Democratic primary voters in a Primary today. If Hispanics vote in larger numbers, Clinton's lead is larger than the 5 points shown here. If Hispanics vote in smaller numbers, Obama runs stronger than these numbers show.
- hmm no .
I would say they would be cautiously happy knowing that it now all depends on them turning out a larger than the 32% survey usa is projecting to get an even larger lead.
Bottomline according to survey usa , the extent of her lead depends on how she can turn out latinos , that is a good place for her to be in.
I would bet that Latinos would turnout larger than 32% .
Anything can change , but at this point I am satisfied because I have always feared Texas.
No way in hell she hold that much of an advantage with latinos once Obama campaigns heavily in the state.
Look into the internals of the polls .
See south/west texas , her lead is a result of Latino's.
She is well liked and i don't see obama cutting into it.
With Dolores Heurta running the show I am pretty happy with the turnout of latinos being the decider.
Dolores is a legend among latinos and if she can turnout latinos in millions for the rallies against the illegal immigration bill , I am pretty glad to have her on my candidates team.
But the weird delegate math in Texas kills her. South and West Texas are filled with 4-delegate districts. Obama-friendly districts have 7 or 8 delegates. If Obama runs close to even among whites, he will pick up lots of delegates in stronger districts.
The delegates coming out of texas would likely be a wash , either a tie or not more than 5 - 8 in differences.
I am more focused on her winning the popular vote.
There are three tracks to her nomination now winning the overall popular vote , winning the delegates , and winning the big states.
So a win even if she doesn't win the delegate count not only changes the course of the campaign and the narrative but also serves to further the fulfillment of 1 of her tracks to the nomination.
In terms of the delegate trough don't look to Texas to make the difference because of how it is apportioned.
By the way she is doing well in central texas which is supposed to be obama's strong hold , with Austin etc so i am happy about that .
This is going to be based on who has the best GOTV machine. Each side will have to ensure that their folks go to the caucus after the polls close.
If HRC wins WI or even comes in single digits she'll hold her edge, if not she'll have a difficult time. It will also come down to the news cycle of the days leading up to the primaries. If I were Hillary's campaign, I would be encouraging all my supporters to vote early.
If she wins by 5 in texas (which is unlikely being Obama is streight up and she is flat to declining) she still takes out very close to ZERO net delegates. She is trying to make-up 100+ in 2 states and this won't do it. All he needs to do is hold her down and this would certainly do that. Looks like Bill should have admitted a few extra states into the union, ones w/o to many Starbucks in them so that she could have a few more firewalls to move to (though i personally think Puerto Rico suites her quite well)
This poll is off at least by 3% this is showing 53/47 F/M ratio generally we have scene closer to 58/42 F/M ratios in all the primaries. So this is underreporting by 4-5 points her lead.
And CNN showing her up by only 2? You better pray their wrong and his surge stops here (which you know is unlikely)because Mrs. Clinton goes into sudden death if she loses tommorow night.
I could not find internals for the CNN poll so do not know.
You should really refrain from being so far out of touch with reality.
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