by tom32182, Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 04:32:17 PM EST
Tags: Polls, Texas (all tags)
Texans for Obama, remember, please vote early and often.
This is still within the margin of error. I'm excited about the movement we're seeing in Texas, but lets not get ahead of ourselves. Closing a 20 point gap is impressive, but nothing matters till you close the sale. Saying game set match too early can be a very big mistake.
Your endless pessimism and silly conspiracy theories have no basis in fact.
you're citing numbers from Ohio, not TX. But, I know, I know, the same conspiracy is happening there too. R-i-i-i-ght.
You do realize that the 82% of the respondents self-identifying themselves as a Democrat in this survey isn't that different from the responses in exit polls in closed primaries, don't you?
Yes, it's a fact that REGISTERED Democrats will self identify themselves as an independent or even a Republican when asked. (Approximately 20% do based on results from closed primaries.)
As a result, it is impossible to accurately identify REGISTERED Democrats from surveys or polls where you ask the voter to self identify their political party affiliation.
Ironically, this is the lead story:
The latest USA Today/Gallup poll shows Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. Hillary Clinton among Democrats nationally, 51% to 39%.
All analyst agree that Obama needs 85% to 90% of All democratic voters for Nov. in order to have a realistic shot at winning. That means that practically 90%-95% of Clinton supporters have to unite behind Obama.
That means that practically 90%-95% of Clinton supporters have to unite behind Obama.
Yeah, why would anyone unite behind someone who has extremely similar views to their favorite candidate?
By the way, the same fact would hold for Obama supporters with Clinton. I don't know if I've seen you make the point in that direction.
Not looking good for Clinton. My 59 year old Mom is so inspired by Obama that she is travelling 250 miles to Texas just to volunteer for his campaign!
<<Clinton and Obama faced off last Thursday at a presidential debate in Austin, Texas, hosted by CNN and the Spanish-language network Univision. The poll suggests the debate gave Obama a boost.</p>
"Among the one-third of Texas Democratic primary voters who watched all or most of the debate, Obama leads Clinton by 20 points," said CNN senior political analyst Bill Schneider.>>
Did you notice that Clinton leads among people who watched the debate but NOT the media coverage after?
Those people didn't watch the debate.
<<And among the one-quarter of Texas Democrats who paid no attention to the debate, Clinton leads Obama by nearly 20 points.>>
Said pollster Keating Holland: "The 2-point gain for Obama and the 4-point drop for Clinton are both within the poll's sampling error, so although the survey appears to indicate some movement toward Obama, we cannot say for certain that he has gained any ground since last week."
- Before you start the whole ship is sinking meme maybe you should have that in mind.
The movement is all within the Moe . Texas is a tie like almost every other poll has shown.
Wait for the survey usa poll tonight.
If she can't win Texas she would have to drop out in my opinion.
This will be a painful episode for the entire party in November. Its will almost be certain that a very substantial percentage of Clinton Democrats will rightfully NOT vote for Obama in november.
"Rightfully," eh? Well then why don't you rightfully change your screen-name to something more appropriate than "Demlady4life" -- perhaps "Fifth Column", "Naderite", or "Demlady4McCain".
Then here's what you should do.
Quit even thinking about this cycle. The rules are not going to change this cycle.
Go start a movement to do whatever it is you want to do... allow only blue states to vote in the primary... allow only registered Dems to vote... require blood oaths... whatever.
I'm just tired of the whining. I'm tired of the conspiracy theories.
The rules are the rules. There will be four more states voting on March 4. The rules that those states have set up for their elections were set long ago. The time to bitch about them was probably last year.
3500 of them tried to vote in our [closed] NM caucus. It's not because they wanted to mess with us. It's because our candidates excite them, and they want to vote with us. We'll be contacting all of them to help them change their registration to become Democrats.
I ran a busy caucus site in Albuquerque. I can't tell you how many times (more than a dozen anyway) I heard people ask me if "DTS" meant they were Democrats. It doesn't. DTS means "decline to state," i.e. no party affiliation. However, they waited in line for 45 min. to two hours to ask the question, hoping they could vote. IMHO, they weren't trying to skew our election. They were sincerely inspired by our candidates (guess which one), and they were disgusted by the Rethuglicans.
i don't know about the internals of this poll, but in the ARG poll, Hillary leads among Dems and Obama wins because of Independents.
Again, shouldn't Democrats decide a Democratic primary?
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